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作者:管理员    发布于:2019-05-15 05:09    文字:【 】【 】【

  首页,新天下娱乐注册招商主管(QQ:52986)名宇娱乐注册也许未来还会有更大的股市暴跌,但是既然我根本无法预测何时会发生股市暴跌,而且据我所知,和我一起参加巴伦投资圆桌会议的其他投资专家们也无法预测,那么何以幻想我们每个人都能够提前做好准备免受暴跌之灾呢?在过去70多年历史上发生的40次股市暴跌中,即使其中39次我提前预测到,而且在暴跌前卖掉了所有的股票,我最后也会后悔万分的。因为即使是跌幅最大的那次股灾,股价最终也涨回来了,而且涨得更高。

  股市下跌没什么好惊讶的,这种事情总是一次又一次发生,就像明尼苏达州的寒冬一次又一次来临一样,只不过是很平常的事情而已。如果你生活在气候寒冷的地带,你早就习以为常,事先早就预计到会有气下降到能结冰的时候,那么当室外度降到低于零度时,你肯定不会恐慌地认为下一个冰河时代就要来了。而你会穿上皮大衣,在人行道上撒些盐,防止结冰,就一切搞定了,你会这样安慰自己—冬天来了,夏季还会远吗?到那时天气又会暖和起来的!

  成功的选股者和股市下跌的关系,就像明尼苏达州的居民和寒冷天气的关系一样。你知道股市大跌总会发生,也为安然度过股市大跌事前做好了准备。如果你看好的随其他股票一起大跌了,你就会迅速抓住机会趁低更多地买入。

  1987年股市暴跌之后,道琼斯指数曾经一天之内下跌了508点,那些投资专家们异口同声地预测股市要崩溃了,但是事后证明,尽管道琼斯指数暴跌1000点之多(从8月份指数最高点计算跌幅高达33%),也没有像人们预料的那样股市末日来临。这只不过是一次正常的股市调整而已,尽管调整幅度非常大,但也只不过是20世纪13次跌幅超过33%的股市调整中的最近一次而已。

  从此之后,虽然又发生过一次跌幅超过10%的股市大跌,也不过是历史上第41次而已,或者这样说,即使这次是一次跌幅超过33%的股市大跌,也不过是历史上第14次而已,没有什么好大惊小怪的。在麦哲伦基金年报中,我经常提醒投资者,这种股市回调不可避免,总会发生的,千万不要恐慌。

  每当我对目前的大局感到忧虑和失望时,我就会努力让自己关注于“更大的大局”。如果你期望自己能够对股市保持信心的话,你就一定要了解“更大的大局”这个概念。

  说起来很简单:“嗯,下次股市下跌的时候,我一定毫不理会那些悲观消息,我要趁机逢低买入一些超跌的股票。”但是做起来并不简单。因为每一次危机看起来都好像要比上一次更严重,要想做到对悲观消息置之不理越来越难。避免由于悲观消息而被吓得抛出股票的最好的办法就是,每个月都定期定额买入股票。

  跟着感觉走的选股方法,最大的毛病是,在股市大涨600点后,股票已经被高估,人们反而会感觉股市还会涨得更高,因而会在高位买入,结果股市调整而被严重套牢;而在股市大跌600点后,股票普遍被低估,人们反而感觉股市还会跌得更低,结果后来股市反弹而错失低价买入良机。如果你不是严格地按照每月定期定额买入股票的话,你就得找出一种办法,让自己能够始终坚定对股市的信心。

  坚定信心和选择股票通常都不会放在一起进行讨论,但是选择股票的成功依赖于坚定的信心。你也许是世界上最厉害的财务分析专家或者股票估值专家,但是如果没有信心,你就会容易相信那些新闻报道的悲观预测,在股市恐慌中吓得慌乱抛出。即使是你可能把自己的资金投入到一个相当不错的投资基金,但是如果你没有信心,你就会在恐慌害怕时抛出,但毫无疑问这时卖出的价格往往是最低最不划算的。

  我所说的是的信心是什么样的呢?那就是始终相信美国会继续存在发展下去;相信人们继续正常地生活,和往常一样在早晨起床穿裤子时先穿一条腿再穿另一条腿,生产裤子的公司会继续为股东赚钱;相信老企业终将丧失活力而被淘汰,沃尔玛、联邦快递、苹果等充满活力的企业将取而代之;相信美利坚人民是一个勤奋工作且富于创造力的民族,甚至相信即使是对于那些雅皮士,尽管拥有待遇优厚的专业工作和富裕的物质型生活方式,如果懒惰不努力的话,也会被大家严厉指责。

  “更大的大局”是从更长更远的眼光来看股市。历史长期统计数据告诉我们,在过去70年里,股票平均每年投资收益率为11%,比国库券、债券、定期存单高出一倍以上。尽管20世纪以来发生了各种大大小小的灾难,曾经有成千上万种理由预测世界末日将要来临,但是投资股票仍然要比投资债券的收益率高一倍以上。用这种大局观来看股市,坚定信心,长期投资股票,收益率肯定要高得多。而听信那些新闻评论员和经济咨询专家的悲观预言,相信经济衰退即将到来,吓得全部抛出股票而投资债券,收益率肯定要比坚定信心长期投资股票要低得多。

  (彼得·林奇,价值投资大师,全球基金业历史上的传奇人物。文章转自中国证券网,原标题《彼得林奇:努力让自己关注于“更大的大局”》)

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  -1?(i=new c({o:sso,m:logout},{jsonp:func},!0),s.push(i.get(i.getDomainApi(t)))):r(i=new c({o:sso,m:logout},{jsonp:func}),s.push(i.get(i.getDomainApi(t))))}),u(),a.when.apply(a,s)},fillProfile:function(e,t,n,i,s){return i=in,(new c({o:User,m:perfectInfo,crumb:e,userName:t,captcha:s,password:r(n),rePassword:r(i)},{},!0)).post().done(function(){u()})},perfectMobile:function(e,t,n,i){return(new c({o:user,m:perfectMobile,crumb:e,mobile:t,password:r(n),rePassword:r(n),smscode:i},{})).post()},checkQrCodeSignInStatus:function(){return(new c({o:sso,m:qrLogin},{jsonp:func})).get()},getAuthenticationStatus:function(e){return(new c({o:User,m:getShiMingStatus,crumb:e})).get()},submitAuthenMobile:function(e,t,n){return(new c({o:User,m:verifyShiMingCaptcha,mobile:e,captcha:t,crumb:n},{},!0)).post()},fillAuthenInfo:function(e,t,n){return(new c({o:User,m:verifyShiMingSmsCode,vt:e,vc:t,crumb:n},{},!0)).post()},authSendSmsToken:function(e,t){return(new c({o:User,m:sendShiMingSmsCode,crumb:e,vt:t},{},!0)).post()}};var p={};a.each(e.sync,function(t,n){var r=function(){var r=arguments[0],i=t+(a.isPlainObject(r)?e.utils.JSON.stringify(r):[].join.apply(arguments)),s=p[i];return s?p[i]:(s=p[i]=n.apply(e.sync,arguments),s.always(function(){delete p[i]}),s)};r.funcName=n.funcName=sync.+t,e.sync[t]=r})}(QHPass),function(e){use strict;var t=e.$,n={charset:document.charsetdocument.defaultCharsetdocument.characterSetUTF-8,domainList:[360pay.cn,so.com,haosou.com,360.cn,360.com,qiku.com,360shouji.com],protocol:location.protocol.replace(:,),proxy:location.protocol+//+location.host+/psp_jump.html,ignoreCookie:!1};e.getConfig=function(e,r){r=void 0!==r?r:null;for(var i,s=n,o=e.split(.);o.length0;)if(i=o.shift(),0!=i.length){if(void 0===s[i]o.length>

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